Risk Assessment and Management Plan
RAMP - Adapting for Climate Change
Over the past 20 years, flooding has generated the highest economic and fiscal losses among extreme weather events Nationwide. In 2022, the annualized national losses due to flood were estimated at $32.1 billion, with projections that flood losses will increase 26.4% over the next 3 decades.
Roughly 70% of all flood losses have occurred outside mapped FEMA floodplains, referred to as “urban flooding” or “inland flooding”. These losses affect private property, economic development and interests, fundamental government assets that support core services and infrastructure, social stability, public safety and health.
Take a visual tour of the RAMP in the Storymap and access the RAMP report documents:
What is the RAMP?
To better quantify Arlington's risk from urban flooding, the Office of Sustainability and Environmental Management proposed a risk-mitigation approach that would model the probability and scale of flood risk, project the influence of climate volatility, and identify flood vulnerability areas and corridors. The Risk Assessment and Management Plan (RAMP) also recommends actions based on the County’s blended-engineering approach under Flood Resilient Arlington and calculates estimated cost for these actions. Importantly, however, the RAMP also measures the financial impacts of “risk” – essentially, the cost of inaction. The risk assessments under the RAMP inform the County’s stormwater investment and prioritization decisions and share with constituents the positive cost-benefit outcomes from those investments.
What Does the RAMP Mean for Arlington?
Fundamentally, the RAMP reflects the County’s focus on long-term planning, performance and resiliency for the stormwater management program to create a more Flood Resilient Arlington. The RAMP builds on the County's Storm Sewer Capacity studies completed for the Stormwater Master Plan. Planning and budgeting for resilience has become more important for Arlington to maintain its AAA bond rating.
Core deliverables from the RAMP include:
- Updated Climate Projections, with multiple climate vulnerabilities and climate “horizons” or timeframes
- Inundation Maps / Updated IDF Curves, modeled on a Watershed-Scale over multiple climate horizons (2040, 2070, and 2100)
- Vulnerability Assessments, factoring in critical civil/civic assets, environmental impacts, and social vulnerability
- Risk Assessments, including direct, indirect and cascading impacts based on 1) total loss or replacement, 2) lost revenue, 3) increased costs of O&M, 4) loss of economic activity
- Capital Projects, Programs and Policies to Mitigate and Manage Flooding in Arlington County, by type and cost-benefit calculations
- Market Impacts and Analysis, with impacts on bonding/cost of debt, re/insurance, land use
These and other products under the RAMP will establish adaptive management of the stormwater system and program, support grant applications and other initiatives, and demonstrate the County’s commitment to climate innovation and leadership.
Schedule and Tasks
- Data Collection - 2020
- Climate projections - 2020
- Vulnerability assessments - 2021
- Risk analysis - 2022
- Gap analysis - 2023
- Final report - Spring, 2024
Engagement