CPHD
Planning Research Brief 8: Growing Near Transit
Major Findings
- By 2040, 19.8% of the population (49,700) and 60.6% of jobs (170,500) will be located within a quarter mile of a Metrorail station.
- In 2010, 69,000 people (32.5%) and 161,200 jobs (77.4%) were within a half mile of a Metro Station. This is forecasted to increase to 95,000 people (37.8%) and 221,500 jobs (78.7%) in 2040.
Planning Research Brief #8: Growing Near Transit
Introduction
According to the Planning Division’s Round 8.0 Forecasting and Estimates data, there were 212,300 people and 208,200 jobs in Arlington County in 2010. By 2040, this is projected to increase to 252,000 people and 281,100 jobs. This planning research brief quantifies these increases in terms of their proximity to public transportation, a development and growth goal of Arlington’s General Land Use Plan (GLUP).
Methodology
Using recently released Round 8.0 Forecasting data, estimates and projections were calculated for population and employment within a quarter mile (a five minute walk) and half mile (a ten minute walk) radius of Metrorail stations and high frequency bus routes. Metro stations included only selected stations in Arlington County, and high frequency bus routes included Columbia Pike and the Shirlington Station.
Using the same Round 8.0 Forecasting and Estimates data, this analysis determined the proximity to selected features by calculating the centroid of census blocks and determining if they fell within the quarter and half mile distance thresholds.
As the quarter mile and half mile radii for each station may overlap, individual station estimates and projections will not sum to the total for All Arlington Metro Stations. This report provides data for individual stations and for aggregated geographies, such as Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor or Jefferson Davis Corrdior Metrorail stations.
Why are the quarter and half mile distances important?
A quarter mile distance is analogous to a five minute walk, while a half mile distance is analogous to a ten minute walk. These distances inform land use planning in the GLUP (General Land Use Plan), and they are the distances that most people are willing to walk to and from transit.
Studies by Arlington County Commuter Services (ACCS) have found the following results for residents and workers within a five block distance from Metrorail. Five blocks is roughly analogous to 0.4-0.5 miles and can be considered informative for describing behavior in the quarter mile and half mile distance categories.
People who LIVE within a half a mile of a Metrorail Station are more likely to:*
- Take transit to work (page 54)
People who LIVE within a half a mile of a Metrobus Stop are more likely to:*
- Take transit to work (page 55)
People who WORK within five blocks of a Metrorail Station are more likely to:**
- Take transit to work (page 98)
- Try taking another mode of transportation to work (page 102)
- Make midday non-work walking trips (page 112)
- Make midday non-work transit trips (page 113)
Planning Research Brief #8: Growing Near Transit
Planning Research Brief #8, Growing Near Transit (PDF) quantifies Arlington’s Round 8.0 Forecast in relation to distance from transit. The following information is intended to supplement the information provided in the brief.
Planning Research Brief #8 contains a condensed table of Population and Employment Forecasts for Quarter Mile and Half Mile Distances from Selected Transit Features, 2010-2040. The following table is an expanded version of the condensed table in the Brief.
*2009 Arlington County Resident Study Report. May 2010.
**Arlington County Commercial Building Research Summary Report. December 2009.
For more information about the Round 8.0 Forecast, visit the Forecasting Page and the Density Page.